SEFALET ENDEKSİ VE ULUSLARARASI TİCARET ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: KARŞILAŞTIRMALI BİR ANALİZ
Date
2021-11-08
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Abstract
Bu çalışmanın amacı Sefalet Endeksinin bir ülkede yaşayan insanların refah
seviyelerini ne ölçüde yansıttığını incelemek ve makroekonomik olarak öneme sahip
olan döviz kuru ve dış ticaret dengesi ile arasındaki ilişkiyi ekonometrik yöntemlerle
analiz etmektir. Çalışmanın uygulama bölümü iki kısımda ele alınmıştır. İlk kısımda
Türkiye ve BRICS ülkelerinin Sefalet Endeksleri ve makroekonomik göstergeler ele
alınarak incelenmiştir. İkinci kısımda ise Türkiye özelinde 2007Q3-2020Q3 dönemleri
arasında Barro Sefalet Endeksi, döviz kuru ve dış ticaret dengesi değerleri
hesaplanarak ekonometrik bir model kurulmuştur. Değişkenlerimize öncellikle Dickey
Fuller birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre tüm değişkenlerimiz
düzeyde durağan çıkmıştır. Bu yüzden modelimize doğrudan EKK yöntemi
uygulanmıştır. EKK tahmin sonuçlarına göre modelimiz ve değişkenlerimiz
istatistiksel olarak anlamlı çıkmıştır. Elde edilen katsayı sonuçları ise Barro Sefalet
Endeksi ile dış ticaret dengesi arasında negatif, döviz kuru ile arasında pozitif bir
ilişkinin varlığını işaret etmiştir.
Sonrasında Granger nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Döviz kurunun dış ticaret
dengesi ile Barro Sefalet Endeksini, Barro Sefalet Endeksinin ise dış ticaret dengesini
etkilediği görülmüştür. Sonraki aşamada ise VAR modeli kurularak varyans
ayrıştırması ve etki-tepki analizleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular
modelimiz kurulmadan önceki tahminlerimize uygun şekilde sonuç vermiştir. Ampirik
analizler neticesinde Sefalet Endeksini daha yüksek seviyede açıklayabilecek makro
değişkenlerin olabileceği anlaşılmıştır.
Description
The Relationship between the Misery Index and International
Trade: A Comparative Analysis
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study is to examine to what extent the Misery Index reflects the welfare levels of people living in a country and to analyze the relationship between the exchange rate and foreign trade balance, which are macroeconomically important, with econometric methods. The application part of the study was obtained in two parts. The first part is in Turkey and the BRICS countries are major macroeconomic indicators and poverty were examined. In the second part 2007Q3-2020Q3 period between private Barro Misery İndex in Turkey, exchange rate and trade balance calculated values are established econometric model. Dickey Fuller unit root test was applied to our variables first. According to the results, all our variables are stable at the level. Therefore, LSC method has been applied directly to our model. According to the LSC estimation results, our model and variables were found to be statistically significant. According to the obtained coefficient results, it pointed out the existence of a negative relationship between the Barro misery index and foreign trade balance, and a positive relationship with the exchange rate. Subsequently, Granger causality analysis was performed. It has been observed that the exchange rate affects the foreign trade balance and the Barro poverty index, and the Barro misery index affects the foreign trade balance. In the next stage, the VAR model was established and variance decomposition and impulse-response analysis were performed. The findings obtained gave results in accordance with our predictions before our model was established. As a result of empirical analysis, it is understood that there may be macro variables that can explain the Misery Index at a higher level.
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study is to examine to what extent the Misery Index reflects the welfare levels of people living in a country and to analyze the relationship between the exchange rate and foreign trade balance, which are macroeconomically important, with econometric methods. The application part of the study was obtained in two parts. The first part is in Turkey and the BRICS countries are major macroeconomic indicators and poverty were examined. In the second part 2007Q3-2020Q3 period between private Barro Misery İndex in Turkey, exchange rate and trade balance calculated values are established econometric model. Dickey Fuller unit root test was applied to our variables first. According to the results, all our variables are stable at the level. Therefore, LSC method has been applied directly to our model. According to the LSC estimation results, our model and variables were found to be statistically significant. According to the obtained coefficient results, it pointed out the existence of a negative relationship between the Barro misery index and foreign trade balance, and a positive relationship with the exchange rate. Subsequently, Granger causality analysis was performed. It has been observed that the exchange rate affects the foreign trade balance and the Barro poverty index, and the Barro misery index affects the foreign trade balance. In the next stage, the VAR model was established and variance decomposition and impulse-response analysis were performed. The findings obtained gave results in accordance with our predictions before our model was established. As a result of empirical analysis, it is understood that there may be macro variables that can explain the Misery Index at a higher level.
Keywords
international trade and logistics